The global talent pool has taken on a dramatically different look

by Dirk Van Damme
Head of the Innovation and Measuring Progress division, Directorate for Education and Skills

The world is living through one of its most extraordinary revolutions, with game-changing implications, many of them still unknown. The growth rate of adults with tertiary education qualifications, and the knowledge and skills associated with them, has never been higher. In 2013, on average across OECD countries, 25% of 55-64 year-olds had a tertiary qualification, but 40% of 25-34 year-olds had an increase of 15 percentage points over 30 years. But among OECD countries, differences are huge. Some countries had expanded their education systems a century ago, while others started to offer opportunities for tertiary education only recently.

The location of human capital matters: in the 20th century, the United States and several other countries were able to benefit from the pool of skilled people in their populations to progress economically and socially at a much higher rate than their competitors.

In the first decades of the 21st century, things look much different. The most recent data shown in the latest Education Indicators in Focus brief on the geographical distribution of 25-34 year-old tertiary graduates in OECD and G20 countries show that in 2013 China had already surpassed the United States. Some 17% of all tertiary graduates are found in China, compared to 14% in both the United States and India. The brief also provides a projection to 2030 based on current trends (see the chart above). In 2030, China would be home to 27% of the global pool of highly educated people, and India to another 23%. The United States would follow with only 8%. And of the emerging economies, Brazil and Indonesia would follow with 5% each. Together China and India would be home to half of the world’s highly educated youth.

These data are truly startling; it is difficult to imagine all the possible consequences. One thinks immediately of the impact on the global distribution of skilled labour and the resulting changes in trade, economic growth and global value chains. Policies to preserve the creative research-and-design parts of production cycles in the industrial nations of the 20th century seem rather antiquated. Think, too, of the enormous consequences for the countries that accomplished this modernisation in a much shorter time than the “old” industrialised nations did.

Of course, many will immediately question the quality of these tertiary qualifications. The expansion and mass accessibility of higher education have put pressure on traditional notions of academic excellence in many industrialised countries. The countries that have undergone this transformation even more rapidly will feel the same pressure. But such dramatic changes also transform the notion of academic quality itself. There are no indications that China and India will be more content with second-class academic quality than the United States or European countries are. But a better and more honest answer is: actually, we don’t know. We don’t yet have a reliable yardstick of the quality of learning and the quality of skills among tertiary graduates. It is difficult to imagine a world in which qualifications and skills matter so much without anyone knowing the real value of them. We know from the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) that even in the “old world” the skills equivalence of tertiary qualifications can differ enormously.

Still, the map of the global distribution of the tertiary graduates looks very different from the map of academic excellence, at least as measured by the established global rankings of universities. Despite their flaws, these rankings nurture the notion that academic excellence is still concentrated in the university systems in the United States, the United Kingdom and a few other European countries. Universities in the East are only very gradually making their way into these league tables. The discrepancy between the location of academic excellence and the location of demand for tertiary qualifications may create tensions, which are only partially resolved through international student flows and e-learning. The global demand for high-quality tertiary education cannot be met by many more international students or MOOCs. As emerging countries like China or India make huge investments in creating world-class universities, it will only be a matter of time before they will catch up in quality as much as in numbers.

In the end, these data are good news. The world is rapidly increasing – and levelling – its pool of knowledge and skills. Given the state of the planet and the many challenges facing us, we will need all the brain-power we can develop. Raising human capital will be the only sustainable strategy, not only to enhance individual nations’ productivity and growth, but also to address the many global challenges before us through research, innovation and collaboration.

Links
Education Indicators in Focus, issue No. 31, by Corinne Heckmann and Soumaya Maghnouj
Education Indicators in Focus, issue No. 31, French version
Survey of Adult Skills
On this topic, visit:
Education Indicators in Focus: www.oecd.org/education/indicators
On the OECD’s education indicators, visit:
Education at a Glance 2014: OECD Indicators: www.oecd.org/edu/eag.htm

Related blog post
French version: Talents : un vivier mondial en pleine mutation
Chart source: OECD database, UNESCO and national statistics websites for Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa (http://stats.oecd.org/)

Building the knowledge economy

by Justine Doody
Freelance Journalist and Editor, SGI News

Across the world, countries and citizens are taking steps to build and participate in the growing knowledge economy. As low skilled jobs disappear, replaced with smart systems or outsourced to less developed economies, governments are realising that the best way to ensure economic growth and higher employment is to invest in human capital. This means creating education opportunities for as many people as possible.

The OECD has found that throughout the global economic downturn, education level has been a predictor of job security. Between 2008 and 2010, unemployment in OECD countries rose from 8.8 per cent to 12.5 per cent for people with no upper secondary education, and from 4.9 per cent to 7.8 per cent for people with an upper secondary education. For those with tertiary education, unemployment increased from 3.3 per cent to only 4.7 per cent. Even in a time of economic crisis, OECD countries still needed highly skilled employees.

The Sustainable Governance Indicators (SGI) 2011 study of the Bertelsmann Foundation measured education in OECD countries. The top performing countries were Finland, Canada and New Zealand, while among the lowest were Mexico, Turkey and Slovakia. In Finland, SGI found, between 60 and 70 per cent of each annual cohort enter third level education. Canada has the highest proportion in the OECD of population aged 20 to 64 that has completed post-secondary education. Reforms in New Zealand have led to a sharp increase in tertiary education participation, among majority and minority groups. OECD figures from 2012 also show that New Zealand invests the highest percentage of public expenditure of all OECD countries in tertiary education.

In Mexico, according to SGI, things are improving, but slowly. University education is increasing, but it is still open to only a few; OECD data shows that just 17 per cent of 25 to 64 year olds have achieved a tertiary education. Turkey has serious problems in terms of access to and quality of education, and only 29 per cent of 25 to 64 year olds have a secondary education. Slovakia sees regional differences in access to third level, and has the lowest enrolment rate in third level in the OECD.

Education, health, social inclusion: it’s all connected

Not surprisingly, the top countries in education scored highly in most of the indicators measured by SGI, while the bottom countries scored low on many indicators. One of the indicators with a close correlation to education performance was social inclusion. Finland, Canada and New Zealand ranked highly on this indicator, while Mexico, Turkey and Slovakia were among the countries with the worst levels of poverty, inequality and social exclusion.

Completing more years of education has been linked to economic success, better health outcomes and greater social inclusion. Within the European Union, research shows that 24 per cent of families with a low-educated head are in poverty, compared to 13 per cent of families whose head has a secondary education, and 6 per cent of families whose head has completed third level education.

However, across the OECD, young people from families with limited education are far more likely to leave the education system before attaining a third level qualification. So, low rates of social inclusion and poor education participation feed off each other. Failing to educate people equitably and effectively exacerbates inequality, while failing to improve social inclusion means less advantaged people are less likely to obtain higher levels of education.

Early childhood education is important

Higher education is key to achieving higher income and economic security. But to ensure access to higher education, it is essential to intervene early in the student’s academic career. Children from disadvantaged social groups tend to perform better in schools that include students from different socioeconomic backgrounds. But too often, different social groups are separated, or are not provided with the same opportunities.

In Slovakia, for instance, SGI data shows that the Roma population has particularly low rates of participation in formal education. In Mexico, a private system that exists alongside the public system makes sure that those with higher incomes have access to better quality education. And in Turkey, a lack of social security benefits for parents means that girls from low-income families tend to leave education around the fifth grade. Even in the better performing countries, disparities persist. New Zealand’s Maori and Pacific Islander populations still face difficulties in accessing education, as do Canada’s Aboriginal groups.

Best in class: Finland

Finland has successfully implemented one route to ensuring students stay in education, helping to keep up its rates of students entering third level. It offers special interventions for students who are having difficulties: about 40 per cent of students in Finnish secondary education are given some form of extra attention. Each school has a “special teacher”, who can identify struggling students and provide educational support. As a result, just 1 per cent of Finnish 15-year-olds do not have basic reading skills, as compared to an OECD average of 7 per cent.

Finland is helped in its efforts to ensure equitable education by its homogenous society and healthy economy. Even so, countries with more diverse socioeconomic compositions could still benefit from following its example of early and intensive intervention. As countries work to create competitive advantage by building skilled workforces, making early investments in students could be an excellent investment in countries’ future potential for economic success.
Photo credit: Body of Knowledge sculpture, Frankfurt /Shutterstock